Huge Decision Point Now in SPX
We’re at a level where I think there’s maximum risk of sellers coming and also the point it would be reasonable to assume bulls are strong if they can break.
I am currently long with stops trailed. This looks more like a bull break, but this is a good spot for bears in terms of RR.
If you want to speculate on a big drop or make cheap hedges, this is the ideal spot to do it. It’s possible if we’re in a turn this is the end of the bull trap and also we’re very close to where you could get out hedges into a break if you wanted to. If this works for bears, a big drop would likely and OTM puts would work.
We’re now retesting the 76.
If the action above the 76 was only a false breakout, this is when we’re likely to see evidence of that by 76 not being able to break a second time. This would be the optimal time to short in a bear setup.
Bulls traps in these two legged form set up big breaks. If this turns into a bull trap it’s very likely the move down is strong.
We usually can draw a fib low to high of this and look for the important levels to the fibs generated from that.
Moves like this would be an extreme warning for bulls! We should be seeing the bulls be strong now if they’re going to break. If there a big dump that should stop around the 1.61. At this point we can say definitively if there’s a break of this 1.61 our bias is much better to be shorting rips.
If it is going to happen for bears, I think it would happen here. Sellers taking over at this level would have me far more interested in making more detailed bear plans.
Bulls breaking this level I think is a string hint we’re going to over 4900.
I am currently long and have stops trailed up to avoid getting rugged.
This is probably the most supportable bear level (4500) of the year (But in my view it maybe failed already).
Holding this level (4500) would be good for bears/bad for bulls.
Likely an aggressive bull on a break here.
Likely a rapid retreat from bull plans if hold.
Above 4555 and above 4600 strong signs of bear failure.